Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs McMichael 43.9% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Nelson
McMichael
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
McMichael
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 McMichael
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McMichael
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
42.9% (408)
+8.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
49.1% (55)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
39.0% (105)
+4.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McMichael shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Home / Away
Nelson
McMichael
Home
52.9% (654)
43.0% (298)
Away
48.9% (658)
42.6% (270)
By Period
Nelson
McMichael
P1
48.4%
46.6%
P2
54.3%
40.8%
P3
50.5%
41.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
43.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |