Brock Nelson vs Connor McMichael
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McMichael 43.3% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 89.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 86.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Nelson
McMichael
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Nelson
McMichael
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 McMichael
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
McMichael
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
McMichael
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McMichael
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
43.3% (1,583)
+4.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
46.0% (139)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
37.5% (176)
+6.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McMichael shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. McMichael is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,261).
Home / Away
Nelson
McMichael
Home
50.1% (5,878)
42.6% (976)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
43.3% (922)
By Period
Nelson
McMichael
P1
48.7%
43.3%
P2
48.6%
43.1%
P3
47.7%
42.1%
OT
45.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |