Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gauthier on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Gauthier 49.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gauthier 71.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Nelson
Gauthier
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Gauthier
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Gauthier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gauthier
0
3
Nelson
Gauthier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Gauthier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gauthier
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
44.0% (116)
+6.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
56.3% (87)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
66.7% (3)
-23.3%
On penalty kill, Gauthier has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gauthier shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Gauthier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gauthier
Home
52.9% (654)
53.1% (98)
Away
48.9% (658)
46.3% (108)
By Period
Nelson
Gauthier
P1
48.4%
43.0%
P2
54.3%
55.4%
P3
50.5%
50.9%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Gauthier
48.0%▼
50.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Cutter Gauthier |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Cutter Gauthier |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Cutter Gauthier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |