Scouting Report
Dominic Toninato holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Toninato 51.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Nelson
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Toninato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
54.8% (31)
-3.9%
On even strength, Toninato has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Toninato is 65.0% vs left-shot opponents (20).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toninato
Home
52.9% (654)
71.4% (21)
Away
48.9% (658)
20.0% (10)
By Period
Nelson
Toninato
P1
48.4%
50.0%
P2
54.3%
71.4%
P3
50.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |