Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Cozens 46.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Cozens
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Cozens
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Cozens
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Cozens
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
45.6% (746)
+4.3%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
50.8% (65)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
34.5% (29)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
49.8% (458)
43.9% (410)
Away
49.0% (506)
47.2% (430)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
50.1%
46.4%
P2
45.4%
41.6%
P3
52.7%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
49.4%
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 09:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |