Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Cozens 53.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 76.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.4%
Neutral zone
Cozens 63.3%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Nelson
Cozens
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
4
Nelson
Cozens
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Cozens
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Cozens
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.2% (634)
-2.3%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
57.7% (97)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
33.3% (6)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
52.9% (654)
54.8% (383)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.3% (354)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
48.4%
56.0%
P2
54.3%
51.2%
P3
50.5%
53.9%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:23 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |