Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Strome 51.7% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 25-18 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 87.8%
Defensive zone
Strome 51.2%
Neutral zone
Strome 69.5%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
18
(43 meetings)
25
18
Nelson
Strome
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
8
9
Nelson
Strome
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
5
Nelson
Strome
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
4
Nelson
Strome
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
50.1% (6,371)
-2.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
58.6% (1,532)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
45.6% (68)
-1.8%
On power play, Strome has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,283).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.1% (3,968)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
52.3% (4,003)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
48.7%
50.5%
P2
48.6%
52.3%
P3
47.7%
52.3%
OT
45.6%
52.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:05 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 01:33 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |