Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Lindholm 53.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 69.2%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 57.8%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 52.2%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 9: Nelson 5-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Lindholm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
53.5% (555)
-3.5%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
61.1% (113)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
49.2% (61)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (521).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
50.4% (472)
55.5% (431)
Away
48.6% (477)
52.7% (298)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
47.2%
52.3%
P2
53.4%
54.8%
P3
47.8%
56.3%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Lindholm
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |