Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Lindholm 55.3% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 61.4%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 51.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.4%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 9: Nelson 5-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Lindholm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
54.8% (766)
-3.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
62.3% (175)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
52.2% (92)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
52.9% (654)
56.6% (578)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.9% (455)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
48.4%
55.2%
P2
54.3%
56.3%
P3
50.5%
56.3%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |