Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Lindholm 53.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 36-31 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
36
(67 meetings)
31
36
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
13
13
Nelson
Lindholm
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
15
16
Nelson
Lindholm
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
7
Nelson
Lindholm
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
53.7% (8,338)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
59.2% (1,683)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
48.1% (1,588)
-4.6%
On even strength, Lindholm has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (8,933).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
49.8% (5,696)
54.0% (5,833)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
53.5% (5,776)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
48.6%
53.9%
P2
48.4%
54.4%
P3
47.4%
52.9%
OT
46.4%
53.6%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Lindholm
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |