Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Lindholm 53.9% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 36-31 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
36
(67 meetings)
31
36
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
13
13
Nelson
Lindholm
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
15
16
Nelson
Lindholm
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
7
Nelson
Lindholm
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
53.8% (8,549)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
59.4% (1,745)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
48.3% (1,619)
-4.5%
On even strength, Lindholm has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,165).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
50.1% (5,878)
54.2% (5,980)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
53.6% (5,933)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
48.7%
54.2%
P2
48.6%
54.5%
P3
47.7%
53.0%
OT
45.6%
53.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |