Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Pettersson 47.2% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Pettersson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 68.8%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 55.3%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 63.2%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Nelson
Pettersson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Pettersson
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Pettersson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
0
5
Nelson
Pettersson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Pettersson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pettersson
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
45.9% (834)
+5.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
55.1% (256)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
35.7% (112)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pettersson shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (779).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pettersson
Home
52.9% (654)
49.1% (607)
Away
48.9% (658)
44.7% (595)
By Period
Nelson
Pettersson
P1
48.4%
45.5%
P2
54.3%
48.0%
P3
50.5%
47.1%
OT
41.2%
47.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |