Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Rodrigues 47.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Nelson
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Rodrigues
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
47.8% (651)
+3.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
47.2% (72)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
36.8% (68)
+6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rodrigues
Home
52.9% (654)
47.9% (445)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Nelson
Rodrigues
P1
48.4%
48.3%
P2
54.3%
47.0%
P3
50.5%
44.8%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |