Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Nazar 47.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Nelson
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
6
(17 meetings)
11
6
Nelson
Nazar
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Nazar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
5
Nelson
Nazar
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
47.2% (574)
+3.7%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
51.0% (143)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
30.2% (43)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nazar
Home
52.9% (654)
45.0% (329)
Away
48.9% (658)
48.5% (431)
By Period
Nelson
Nazar
P1
48.4%
47.8%
P2
54.3%
43.4%
P3
50.5%
48.4%
OT
41.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:02 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |