Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Nazar 46.2% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Nelson
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
10
(28 meetings)
18
10
Nelson
Nazar
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Nazar
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
7
Nelson
Nazar
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Nazar
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
46.3% (907)
+1.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
48.1% (183)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
35.6% (73)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nazar
Home
50.1% (5,878)
44.2% (536)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
47.4% (627)
By Period
Nelson
Nazar
P1
48.7%
47.7%
P2
48.6%
42.2%
P3
47.7%
47.1%
OT
45.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:02 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |