Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Minten 48.8% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Nelson
Minten
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Minten
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Minten
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
1
2
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Minten
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.6% (651)
+1.3%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
48.0% (50)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
35.6% (45)
+7.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Minten shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Minten is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Nelson
Minten
Home
52.9% (654)
52.4% (349)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.3% (397)
By Period
Nelson
Minten
P1
48.4%
45.4%
P2
54.3%
47.1%
P3
50.5%
52.3%
OT
41.2%
83.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |