Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.2%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Minten 48.3% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Nelson
Minten
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Minten
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Minten
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
1
2
Nelson
Minten
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Minten
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.9% (841)
-1.0%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
47.5% (61)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
36.7% (49)
+7.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Minten shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Minten is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (624).
Home / Away
Nelson
Minten
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.9% (476)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
44.4% (475)
By Period
Nelson
Minten
P1
48.7%
44.4%
P2
48.6%
46.8%
P3
47.7%
52.3%
OT
45.6%
83.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |