Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Lapierre 43.4% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 53.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.2%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 53.3%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Nelson
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
0
1
Nelson
Lapierre
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
40.9% (264)
+10.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
50.0% (6)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
0.0% (1)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Lapierre is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lapierre
Home
52.9% (654)
44.2% (138)
Away
48.9% (658)
37.6% (133)
By Period
Nelson
Lapierre
P1
48.4%
55.2%
P2
54.3%
40.6%
P3
50.5%
26.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
35.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Lapierre
50.0%▲
41.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |