Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 51.4%). Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Compher 51.3% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.1%
Defensive zone
Compher 58.0%
Neutral zone
Compher 53.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Compher
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Compher
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
3
Nelson
Compher
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.1% (784)
-2.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
54.8% (31)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
36.8% (95)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
52.9% (654)
51.3% (452)
Away
48.9% (658)
51.5% (458)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
48.4%
54.9%
P2
54.3%
49.0%
P3
50.5%
50.6%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |