Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.8%). Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Compher 47.8% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Compher leads 29-24 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.9%
Defensive zone
Compher 72.0%
Neutral zone
Compher 55.5%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Nelson
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
29
(53 meetings)
24
29
Nelson
Compher
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
4
Nelson
Compher
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
3
20
Nelson
Compher
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
12
5
Nelson
Compher
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.6% (5,743)
-0.7%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
52.6% (682)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.9% (1,426)
+1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Compher is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,651).
Home / Away
Nelson
Compher
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.0% (3,917)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
46.6% (3,934)
By Period
Nelson
Compher
P1
48.7%
49.0%
P2
48.6%
47.2%
P3
47.7%
47.4%
OT
45.6%
40.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |