Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Roslovic 45.1% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Nelson
Roslovic
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
14
(34 meetings)
20
14
Nelson
Roslovic
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Roslovic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Nelson
Roslovic
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
2
Nelson
Roslovic
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roslovic
4
5
Nelson
Roslovic
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roslovic
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
45.0% (3,012)
+2.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
48.4% (341)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
34.3% (105)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roslovic shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Roslovic is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,387).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roslovic
Home
50.1% (5,878)
44.0% (1,739)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
46.0% (1,719)
By Period
Nelson
Roslovic
P1
48.7%
45.5%
P2
48.6%
44.9%
P3
47.7%
44.8%
OT
45.6%
31.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Roslovic
58.0%▲
52.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:12 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Jack Roslovic |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |