Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Benn 49.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 65.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Nelson
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Benn
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
0
2
Nelson
Benn
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Benn
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
46.3% (67)
+4.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
61.1% (18)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (2)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Benn is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
Nelson
Benn
Home
52.9% (654)
48.8% (41)
Away
48.9% (658)
50.0% (46)
By Period
Nelson
Benn
P1
48.4%
34.6%
P2
54.3%
66.7%
P3
50.5%
45.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Benn
46.0%▼
52.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |