Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Benn 52.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Benn leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Nelson
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
22
(37 meetings)
15
22
Nelson
Benn
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Benn
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
4
11
Nelson
Benn
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Benn
6
8
Nelson
Benn
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
Benn
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
53.5% (6,456)
-5.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
52.6% (2,055)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
49.3% (515)
-5.5%
On even strength, Benn has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Benn is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,271).
Home / Away
Nelson
Benn
Home
50.1% (5,878)
54.9% (4,550)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
51.0% (4,492)
By Period
Nelson
Benn
P1
48.7%
51.9%
P2
48.6%
52.6%
P3
47.7%
54.0%
OT
45.6%
62.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Benn
46.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2023 | OT | 01:42 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 19:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 07:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |