Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Beagle 56.7% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 29-16 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 92.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 87.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 90.2%
90.2%
9.8%
Nelson
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
29
(45 meetings)
16
29
Nelson
Beagle
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson
Beagle
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
11
Nelson
Beagle
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
11
Nelson
Beagle
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
57.5% (4,994)
-9.7%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
60.5% (119)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
54.2% (1,554)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beagle
Home
49.8% (5,696)
59.1% (3,228)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
54.5% (3,443)
By Period
Nelson
Beagle
P1
48.6%
57.4%
P2
48.4%
57.1%
P3
47.4%
56.2%
OT
46.4%
41.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 12:05 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:06 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 16:33 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 17:17 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |