Brock Nelson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Pageau 59.0% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 60.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Nelson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Nelson
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Nelson
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
59.4% (726)
-8.5%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
69.0% (42)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
59.7% (221)
-16.3%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pageau
Home
52.9% (654)
58.4% (430)
Away
48.9% (658)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Nelson
Pageau
P1
48.4%
55.4%
P2
54.3%
61.8%
P3
50.5%
61.5%
OT
41.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |