Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Tavares 56.8% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 87.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
7
Nelson
Tavares
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Tavares
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Nelson
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
57.7% (975)
-6.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
56.0% (250)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
52.2% (23)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
52.9% (654)
57.4% (636)
Away
48.9% (658)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
48.4%
57.5%
P2
54.3%
56.9%
P3
50.5%
57.5%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |