Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 34 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Tavares 54.4% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 69-37 in 106 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 93.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 89.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 86.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.7%
89.7%
10.3%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
69
(106 meetings)
37
69
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
25
Nelson
Tavares
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
15
26
Nelson
Tavares
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
13
18
Nelson
Tavares
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
54.0% (16,169)
-6.1%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
56.4% (4,298)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
50.5% (624)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
50.1% (5,878)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
48.7%
55.0%
P2
48.6%
54.1%
P3
47.7%
54.0%
OT
45.6%
55.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |