Brock Nelson vs Jonathan Marchessault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Marchessault 46.7% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Nelson
Marchessault
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Marchessault
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Marchessault
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchessault
0
1
Nelson
Marchessault
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
35.3% (34)
+15.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
66.7% (3)
-6.9%
On even strength, Nelson has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Marchessault is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Home / Away
Nelson
Marchessault
Home
52.9% (654)
40.0% (25)
Away
48.9% (658)
33.3% (12)
By Period
Nelson
Marchessault
P1
48.4%
50.0%
P2
54.3%
30.8%
P3
50.5%
22.2%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
12.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
37.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |