Brock Nelson vs Jonathan Marchessault
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Marchessault on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Marchessault 42.3% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Marchessault leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchessault 73.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.1%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 50.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Nelson
Marchessault
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Nelson
Marchessault
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Marchessault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchessault
1
4
Nelson
Marchessault
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Marchessault
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Marchessault
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
41.4% (1,441)
+6.5%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
44.3% (264)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
44.4% (9)
-0.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Marchessault is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,122).
Home / Away
Nelson
Marchessault
Home
50.1% (5,878)
42.6% (892)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
41.0% (822)
By Period
Nelson
Marchessault
P1
48.7%
43.3%
P2
48.6%
42.2%
P3
47.7%
39.9%
OT
45.6%
42.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | OT | 01:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 18:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 12:35 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |