Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Toews 60.4% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 50.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Nelson
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
62.6% (728)
-11.7%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
59.4% (143)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
46.9% (32)
-3.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toews
Home
52.9% (654)
61.1% (455)
Away
48.9% (658)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Nelson
Toews
P1
48.4%
59.7%
P2
54.3%
66.7%
P3
50.5%
58.4%
OT
41.2%
80.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |