Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Toews 57.9% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 35-29 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Nelson
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
35
(64 meetings)
29
35
Nelson
Toews
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
14
14
Nelson
Toews
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
12
Nelson
Toews
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
9
Nelson
Toews
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
57.2% (13,079)
-9.3%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
63.3% (3,254)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
53.6% (1,810)
-9.8%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,675).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toews
Home
50.1% (5,878)
59.7% (9,212)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
56.1% (8,962)
By Period
Nelson
Toews
P1
48.7%
58.6%
P2
48.6%
57.9%
P3
47.7%
57.3%
OT
45.6%
58.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 12:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |