Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Staal 54.6% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 61.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 73.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
2
Nelson
Staal
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
5
Nelson
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
56.2% (989)
-5.3%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
66.0% (159)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
42.7% (253)
+0.7%
On power play, Staal has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
52.9% (654)
55.4% (699)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
48.4%
55.7%
P2
54.3%
54.7%
P3
50.5%
53.4%
OT
41.2%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |