Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 44 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Staal 55.3% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 88-63 in 151 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 83.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
88
(151 meetings)
63
88
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
25
26
Nelson
Staal
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
16
28
Nelson
Staal
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
22
34
Nelson
Staal
56 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
55.9% (14,654)
-8.0%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
62.7% (1,762)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
47.9% (2,907)
-4.1%
On even strength, Staal has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
50.1% (5,878)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
48.7%
55.2%
P2
48.6%
55.9%
P3
47.7%
54.8%
OT
45.6%
56.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |