Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Rossi 46.8% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Rossi leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Rossi 65.7%
Defensive zone
Rossi 61.3%
Neutral zone
Rossi 65.0%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Nelson
Rossi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Nelson
Rossi
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Rossi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
0
4
Nelson
Rossi
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
Rossi
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
0
2
Nelson
Rossi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rossi
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
46.8% (2,180)
+1.1%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
47.1% (189)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
34.1% (44)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rossi shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Rossi is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,558).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rossi
Home
50.1% (5,878)
47.8% (1,225)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
45.4% (1,188)
By Period
Nelson
Rossi
P1
48.7%
47.1%
P2
48.6%
44.7%
P3
47.7%
48.2%
OT
45.6%
45.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Rossi
46.0%▼
51.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |