Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 60.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Nelson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Nelson
Scheifele
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
5
Nelson
Scheifele
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
4
Nelson
Scheifele
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Scheifele
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
46.5% (919)
+4.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
48.7% (187)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (54)
-6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Home / Away
Nelson
Scheifele
Home
52.9% (654)
46.6% (605)
Away
48.9% (658)
47.4% (555)
By Period
Nelson
Scheifele
P1
48.4%
52.3%
P2
54.3%
45.3%
P3
50.5%
43.9%
OT
41.2%
27.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 07:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |