Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 34 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 52-46 in 98 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 68.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.4%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 53.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Nelson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
52
(98 meetings)
46
52
Nelson
Scheifele
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
11
23
Nelson
Scheifele
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
22
16
Nelson
Scheifele
38 total
Neutral Zone
Even
13
13
Nelson
Scheifele
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
46.3% (12,077)
+1.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
50.2% (2,576)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.6% (598)
+2.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,862).
Home / Away
Nelson
Scheifele
Home
50.1% (5,878)
48.9% (7,678)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
44.7% (7,574)
By Period
Nelson
Scheifele
P1
48.7%
48.2%
P2
48.6%
45.6%
P3
47.7%
46.8%
OT
45.6%
42.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 07:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |