Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Beniers 48.8% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Beniers 72.6%
Defensive zone
Beniers 71.2%
Neutral zone
Beniers 72.2%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Nelson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
Nelson
Beniers
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
6
Nelson
Beniers
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
3
Nelson
Beniers
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
2
Nelson
Beniers
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
48.3% (862)
+2.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
58.3% (36)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (32)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beniers
Home
52.9% (654)
52.4% (460)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.1% (470)
By Period
Nelson
Beniers
P1
48.4%
47.5%
P2
54.3%
50.6%
P3
50.5%
47.6%
OT
41.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |