Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Beniers 46.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Nelson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
16
(34 meetings)
18
16
Nelson
Beniers
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
6
8
Nelson
Beniers
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
6
Nelson
Beniers
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Beniers
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
46.5% (3,825)
+1.4%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
47.8% (360)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.4% (111)
+2.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,839).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beniers
Home
50.1% (5,878)
48.9% (2,195)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
44.0% (2,101)
By Period
Nelson
Beniers
P1
48.7%
47.2%
P2
48.6%
47.0%
P3
47.7%
45.7%
OT
45.6%
34.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 13:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |