Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Amadio 47.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Amadio leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Amadio 56.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.5%
Neutral zone
Amadio 53.6%
Result
Michael Amadio favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Nelson
Amadio
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Amadio
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Amadio
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Amadio
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Amadio
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Amadio
0
2
Nelson
Amadio
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Amadio
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
47.3% (1,363)
+0.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
50.9% (57)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
33.3% (24)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Amadio shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Amadio is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,046).
Home / Away
Nelson
Amadio
Home
50.1% (5,878)
47.3% (656)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
47.2% (788)
By Period
Nelson
Amadio
P1
48.7%
50.5%
P2
48.6%
44.8%
P3
47.7%
46.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Amadio
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:22 | Neutral | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:38 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |