Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Granlund 49.5% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Nelson
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Granlund
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
1
Nelson
Granlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Granlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Granlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.7% (493)
+1.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
58.6% (111)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
31.1% (61)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Granlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (445).
Home / Away
Nelson
Granlund
Home
52.9% (654)
54.7% (276)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.8% (389)
By Period
Nelson
Granlund
P1
48.4%
52.2%
P2
54.3%
49.3%
P3
50.5%
47.4%
OT
41.2%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |