Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Frost 56.4% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 81.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 58.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Frost
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Nelson
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
56.0% (755)
-5.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
60.1% (173)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
88.9% (9)
-45.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
52.9% (654)
57.3% (497)
Away
48.9% (658)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
48.4%
60.2%
P2
54.3%
56.0%
P3
50.5%
54.8%
OT
41.2%
63.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 08:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |