Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Frost 50.6% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 27-25 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 63.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
27
(52 meetings)
25
27
Nelson
Frost
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
7
11
Nelson
Frost
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
9
Nelson
Frost
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
7
Nelson
Frost
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
49.7% (3,652)
-1.8%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
55.4% (632)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
55.0% (40)
-11.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
48.7%
51.2%
P2
48.6%
51.3%
P3
47.7%
48.8%
OT
45.6%
64.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 08:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |