Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Dowd 53.3% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Dowd
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Nelson
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
55.4% (771)
-5.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
57.1% (7)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
45.5% (165)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
49.8% (458)
58.2% (462)
Away
49.0% (506)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
50.1%
55.6%
P2
45.4%
50.5%
P3
52.7%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.4%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |