Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Dowd 48.6% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 77.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Dowd
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Nelson
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nelson
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
51.0% (671)
-0.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
0.0% (2)
+59.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
41.5% (224)
+1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +59.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
52.9% (654)
48.2% (471)
Away
48.9% (658)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
48.4%
48.3%
P2
54.3%
46.8%
P3
50.5%
51.0%
OT
41.2%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |