Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.6%). Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Suzuki 50.6% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 63.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.6%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 52.5%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
1
3
Nelson
Suzuki
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
2
Nelson
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
51.3% (945)
-0.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
50.7% (282)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
40.3% (67)
+3.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (976).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
52.9% (654)
51.0% (637)
Away
48.9% (658)
50.2% (657)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
48.4%
53.1%
P2
54.3%
47.4%
P3
50.5%
51.3%
OT
41.2%
48.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |