Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Suzuki 49.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 24-22 in 46 meetings
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
22
(46 meetings)
24
22
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
9
Nelson
Suzuki
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
7
Nelson
Suzuki
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
3
6
Nelson
Suzuki
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
49.2% (6,124)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
50.7% (1,285)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
43.4% (454)
+0.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,694).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
49.8% (5,696)
50.9% (3,880)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
47.5% (3,983)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
48.6%
48.5%
P2
48.4%
49.0%
P3
47.4%
50.3%
OT
46.4%
43.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Suzuki
48.0%▼
53.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:21 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |