Scouting Report
Nico Hischier holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Hischier 55.4% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hischier 67.0%
Defensive zone
Hischier 61.0%
Neutral zone
Hischier 63.3%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Nelson
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Nelson
Hischier
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Hischier
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Hischier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Hischier
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
55.5% (1,172)
-4.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
64.5% (265)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
43.9% (164)
-0.5%
On power play, Hischier has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Hischier is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,026).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hischier
Home
52.9% (654)
56.8% (791)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.8% (810)
By Period
Nelson
Hischier
P1
48.4%
56.0%
P2
54.3%
58.6%
P3
50.5%
53.5%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Hischier
66.0%▲
58.0%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |