Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 51.0%). Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Acciari 50.8% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Acciari leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 82.2%
Defensive zone
Acciari 78.4%
Neutral zone
Acciari 52.8%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Nelson
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Nelson
Acciari
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Acciari
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
6
Nelson
Acciari
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Acciari
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
52.7% (313)
-1.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
33.3% (18)
+26.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
49.7% (195)
-6.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Acciari is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Nelson
Acciari
Home
52.9% (654)
52.6% (291)
Away
48.9% (658)
48.9% (235)
By Period
Nelson
Acciari
P1
48.4%
53.7%
P2
54.3%
51.1%
P3
50.5%
48.5%
OT
41.2%
42.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |