Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Acciari 51.2% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Acciari leads 30-12 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.3%
Defensive zone
Acciari 64.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Nelson
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
30
(42 meetings)
12
30
Nelson
Acciari
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
4
Nelson
Acciari
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
1
18
Nelson
Acciari
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
2
8
Nelson
Acciari
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
52.8% (3,304)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
48.3% (87)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
47.0% (1,073)
-3.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Acciari is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,268).
Home / Away
Nelson
Acciari
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.9% (2,139)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
50.7% (2,325)
By Period
Nelson
Acciari
P1
48.7%
52.3%
P2
48.6%
51.5%
P3
47.7%
50.2%
OT
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 01:57 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |