Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Kurashev 46.9% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Nelson
Kurashev
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Kurashev
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kurashev
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kurashev
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
50.0% (46)
+0.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
40.7% (27)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
0.0% (6)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kurashev shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Kurashev is 30.4% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kurashev
Home
52.9% (654)
37.5% (40)
Away
48.9% (658)
48.7% (39)
By Period
Nelson
Kurashev
P1
48.4%
48.6%
P2
54.3%
40.0%
P3
50.5%
37.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |