Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Byfield 45.8% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Byfield leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Byfield 68.8%
Defensive zone
Byfield 69.1%
Neutral zone
Byfield 62.9%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Nelson
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Byfield
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
2
Nelson
Byfield
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
4
Nelson
Byfield
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Byfield
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
46.8% (801)
+4.0%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
50.8% (59)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
35.9% (153)
+7.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. Byfield is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Nelson
Byfield
Home
52.6% (639)
46.3% (462)
Away
48.9% (658)
44.6% (551)
By Period
Nelson
Byfield
P1
48.3%
44.6%
P2
54.0%
43.4%
P3
50.4%
48.7%
OT
41.2%
37.9%
Final 5 min
51.7%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Byfield
54.0%▼
57.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:45 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:58 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |