Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Byfield 45.8% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Byfield leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Byfield 71.7%
Defensive zone
Byfield 70.7%
Neutral zone
Byfield 65.6%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Nelson
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Byfield
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
2
Nelson
Byfield
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
4
Nelson
Byfield
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Byfield
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
46.8% (801)
+4.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
50.8% (59)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
35.9% (153)
+7.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Byfield is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Nelson
Byfield
Home
52.9% (654)
46.3% (462)
Away
48.9% (658)
44.6% (551)
By Period
Nelson
Byfield
P1
48.4%
44.6%
P2
54.3%
43.4%
P3
50.5%
48.7%
OT
41.2%
37.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Byfield
54.0%▼
57.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:45 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:58 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |